Prediction error can be calculated once the actual outcome is reported.
Details
This national indicator provides economic context; it does not establish any property's price or local rent.
Keep each dated forecast and reported outcome separate. The later staff release is a preliminary assessment, not an IMF Executive Board conclusion; a newer forecast is not an actual outcome, and statistics may be revised later.
Change between the two latest forecasts: -1 percentage points. This is a revision, not prediction error.
Compare the same year's annual real GDP growth, in percentage points. The source figures are attributed, not independently verified by The CONWE; this comparison does not authorize an action or determine a prediction question’s outcome.
No numerical confidence probability is provided. A growth percentage is not a probability of being correct.
Reported outcome minus forecast: 0.5 percentage points.
Details
This national indicator provides economic context; it does not establish any property's price or local rent.
Keep each dated forecast and reported outcome separate. The later staff release is a preliminary assessment, not an IMF Executive Board conclusion; a newer forecast is not an actual outcome, and statistics may be revised later.
Compare the same year's annual real GDP growth, in percentage points. The source figures are attributed, not independently verified by The CONWE; this comparison does not authorize an action or determine a prediction question’s outcome.
No numerical confidence probability is provided. A growth percentage is not a probability of being correct.
This feature is for prediction practice using free virtual points only; points cannot be purchased, transferred, withdrawn, or redeemed for cash, physical goods, services, or anything of real-world value, and there is no real-money wagering or any prize.